Plus500’s US Prediction Markets Growth Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook
Plus500’s US futures operation is becoming a more consequential part of the group’s growth story. After prediction markets and other non-OTC products expanded in the third quarter, the London-listed broker said it now expects 2026 revenue and EBITDA to exceed analyst forecasts. That’s a change in tone from its October 2 statement, when the company described trading as in line with expectations, just over three weeks earlier. The company gave no updated full-year figures in its Q3 2026 trading update, so investors have a stronger directional signal but little extra detail on the scale of the expected improvement.
Third-quarter revenue rose 11% year over year to $203.2 million, while EBITDA increased 7% to $88.4 million, a 44% margin. Revenue grew faster than EBITDA, a gap that bears watching as the business expands into new products and markets. For the first nine months, revenue totaled $666.1 million and EBITDA reached $275.9 million. Those figures show a profitable business with room to fund expansion, though they don’t explain how much of the latest growth came from prediction markets, customer activity, or other parts of the group.
Prediction markets add weight to the US business
Plus500’s non-OTC segment, which includes futures, options on futures and prediction markets, generated about 16% of group revenue and roughly 31% of new customers so far this year. The difference between those shares suggests the segment is attracting customers at a faster rate than it’s contributing revenue. That could make the business more important over time, but customer additions alone don’t show how active those customers will be or how much revenue they’ll generate. The company added CFTC-regulated contracts tied to sports and other events during Q3, alongside single stock futures.
That positioning puts Plus500 among a growing set of companies entering US event contracts. Sportsbook operators including DraftKings are building their own consumer platforms; CEO Jason Robins recently said DKeX had become the third-largest US prediction exchange. Plus500’s role is different: it provides brokerage, execution and clearing infrastructure rather than centering the offer on a sportsbook brand. That distinction matters because the company’s opportunity depends partly on serving other businesses, not just attracting users to a Plus500-branded product. Here's the thing: infrastructure can extend a company’s reach, but it still has to earn business from partners and support consistent customer activity.
Two new international business-to-business partners, Wealthsimple and Nelogica, will use that infrastructure. The announcements add potential distribution beyond Plus500’s own customer channels, although the update doesn’t say how much revenue either partnership might produce. Customer funds held in segregated accounts topped $1 billion at the end of September. That balance signals substantial customer participation, but it shouldn’t be read as revenue or as a direct measure of trading intensity.
One US app planned for 2027
The company plans to bring its US products into a single app in the first quarter of 2027. The proposed lineup spans futures, options on futures, prediction markets, stocks, options and ETFs. Bringing those products together could give customers a more direct way to move between different types of trading, while giving Plus500 a broader role in their financial activity. But a plan is still a plan: the update doesn’t provide details on how the products will be presented, how customers will be brought onto the app, or what uptake the company expects.
Access to stocks and ETFs depends on Plus500’s agreed acquisition of Hedge, a US broker-dealer that would give the group access to SEC-regulated securities for the first time. “In the US, Hedge will unlock access to SEC-regulated markets, supporting the planned launch of a new, multi-asset ‘super-app’ in Q1 2027,” chief executive David Zruia said. The acquisition is therefore tied to a central part of the product plan, rather than being a separate expansion move. If you're working in this space, you’ll recognize the practical challenge: adding products is only one step; presenting them in a way customers understand and want to use is another.
Plus500 has also agreed to acquire Guru in Brazil. The deal would establish its first local operation there and provide a base for expansion elsewhere in the region. Both acquisitions are to be funded from existing cash. The update doesn’t spell out the expected costs or how quickly either purchase would contribute to results, leaving execution and integration as open questions. A wider product range and new geographic footholds could support growth, but they also make delivery more complicated.
Customer growth alongside strong cash reserves
Plus500 added 28,747 new customers in Q3, up 27% from a year earlier, while average acquisition cost fell 14% to $1,150. Active customers totaled 119,528, and quarterly deposits reached a record $1.9 billion. Together, those measures show customer acquisition and funding momentum, though they capture different things: new customers reflect additions, active customers reflect use, and deposits show money entering accounts. The update doesn’t break down how much these figures were driven by the US business or by prediction markets.
At September’s end, the group held more than $775 million in cash and had no debt. During the quarter it paid $87.4 million in dividends and spent about $63.5 million on share buybacks. Those distributions sit alongside the company’s planned acquisitions and product expansion, making cash a visible part of the growth story as well as a source of shareholder returns. The figures don’t establish how management will balance those priorities in future quarters, but they do show that the current expansion is being pursued from a position of substantial liquidity.
What the growth signals do—and don’t—show
The figures point to prediction markets becoming one growth channel within a broader futures business. This is more significant than it looks: the segment’s share of new customers is already larger than its share of revenue, which gives Plus500 a potential route to grow its contribution if those customers remain active. That outcome isn’t guaranteed by acquisition figures, however. Customer retention, trading activity and the economics of serving partners will help determine whether the early growth translates into durable earnings.
Activity measures in this sector need careful interpretation, though; this explainer on how prediction market volume is counted outlines why headline volume can be misleading. Similar trading businesses can report activity in ways that make direct comparisons difficult, so revenue, customer behavior and margins offer useful context alongside volume claims. And yet, Plus500’s update leaves several of those details unanswered, including the contribution of individual products and partners. For now, the stronger forecast is a sign of improving expectations, while the absence of revised full-year figures limits how precisely readers can judge the change. A promising channel. Still, proof will come from sustained customer use and financial contribution.
