Google Ads Bars Prediction Market Advertising in Five States

Google’s new advertising rules give prediction market operators a clear distribution constraint while courts continue to weigh who can oversee sports event contracts. Ads for these platforms cannot target residents of Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio, according to CDC Gaming’s report on the policy’s effect on Kalshi and other operators.

The restriction applies to advertising, not necessarily to every product or service an operator may offer in those states. That distinction matters: Google’s location rules don’t resolve whether a state can block a contract, but they do limit where a provider can promote its platform through Google Ads.

Certification comes with local requirements

Google added a prediction markets section to its main Google Ads policy document during the week before CDC Gaming reported the change. It covers platforms that list exchange-traded contracts, or give customers access to them, when those contracts concern economic outcomes, sports or current events.

Providers seeking to advertise in an eligible location must hold the relevant local financial, commodities or gaming licences, follow local law and Google’s ad policies, and obtain Google certification and approval. Advertisers are also responsible for checking the rules in each place they target.

Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio are excluded from the advertising footprint. CDC Gaming separately reported that sports event contracts aren’t available in Michigan or Nevada, while Google’s ad restriction covers prediction market products more broadly.

Operators and states are contesting oversight

All five states have sued prediction market operators in attempts to stop them from operating in their jurisdictions, CDC Gaming reported. Connecticut’s case against Kalshi illustrates the dispute: states argue that sports contracts fall under gambling rules, while operators invoke federal commodities oversight. The conflict is also reflected in Connecticut’s challenge to Kalshi’s sports contracts.

Underdog has taken the fight to court after Tennessee issued a cease-and-desist order over sports event contracts. The company sued Tennessee, its attorney general and the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council, saying the state warned of fines, civil penalties, criminal investigations and potential loss of its fantasy sports operator licence if it failed to comply.

In a federal filing in Nashville, Underdog asked the court to stop Tennessee from barring the contracts. Its argument is that the CFTC regulates its event contracts, placing them outside state gambling laws. The company has filed similar suits over sports event contracts in Washington, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin and Tennessee. Those are Underdog’s claims; they haven’t settled the wider question of jurisdiction.

The split between federal and state oversight of prediction markets leaves operators managing legal exposure alongside platform-specific advertising limits. Google’s policy sets its own conditions for ad placement; it doesn’t determine which government rules apply to a contract.

Sports lead user activity

Sports contracts are the most frequently traded category among prediction market users, based on the S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Q3 2026 Consumer Insights survey cited by CDC Gaming. Among respondents who had used a yes-or-no exchange in the previous year, 70% traded sports event contracts. Economic or financial outcomes drew 36%, and political outcomes 33%.

Ten percent of respondents said they had traded on a yes-or-no exchange during the past year. Another 42% knew of prediction market operators but hadn’t used them, while 44% said they had never heard of prediction markets.

Key questions remain unresolved

BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt told analysts he expects the Supreme Court to rule against prediction markets and hopes the justices will clarify the issue in the 2026–2027 session. CDC Gaming reported that the court hadn’t decided whether to hear the case; its current term runs through June 2027.

The CFTC has proposed rulemaking on casino-style products in prediction markets, but that process doesn’t settle the state cases now in progress. For advertisers, the immediate constraint is already defined: Google excludes five states while operators and state officials continue to dispute oversight of sports event contracts.

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